Risk predictions at years 1 to 5 from the diagnosis of moderate or severe CKD


Each diamond represents the values of the risk of death (y axis) and kidney failure (x axis) at years 1 to 5. Note that people with kidney failure may die within the prediction timeframe.





About this app


This app has been developed by Pietro Ravani, Jose Aponte and Emir Sevinc (software maintainer). The app is hosted at the University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine.

KDpredict (TM) was published in the BMJ on April 15, 2024, and presented on the same day at the World Congress of Nephrology (WCN 2024) held in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Liu P, Sawhney S, Heide-Jorgensen U, et al. Predicting the risks of kidney failure and death in adults with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease: multinational, longitudinal, population based, cohort study.

BMJ 2024;385:e078063.



Gerds TAG, Ravani P: Fast Facts, Super Learner for risk prediction

BMJ 2024;385:q721



Link to the GitHub repository:



Maintainer contact:

https://contacts.ucalgary.ca/info/med/profiles/1-10042486

Terms for Access and Disclaimer for Use

Terms of Access and Disclaimer for Use

Please read the Terms of Access and Disclaimer for Research Use (these "Terms") carefully before using this website (this "Site"). By accessing KDpredictTM, you agree to be bound by these Terms, which govern your access and use of KDpredictTM (the "Services") and create a binding legal agreement that can be enforced by the owners of the Services - UTI Limited Partnership ("the Owners") against you in the event of a violation.

1. Use of the Services: Subject to your compliance with these Terms, as a user, you are granted a limited, non-exclusive, non-transferable, non-sublicensable license to use the Services for the following non-commercial, informational, educational and/or research purposes only :
a. Use by students and academic researchers in non-industry sponsored research;
b. Use by clinicians for calculating patient risk scores;
c. Use by non-profit organizations for calculating patient risk scores; or
d. Any other use that is permitted by the Owners in their sole discretion where the user has obtained prior written permission from the Owners for such use.
(the "Permitted Purposes")

The Permitted Purposes listed above are the uses which are allowed, but such list does not constitute an endorsement, guarantee, representation, or warranty by the Owners as to the suitability of the Services for such purposes or uses. The Services are experimental in nature and are in no way intended to provide certainty with respect to a diagnosis, to recommend a particular product, treatment, or therapy or to otherwise substitute for the clinical judgment of a qualified professional. You are solely responsible for assessing the suitability of the Services for your own purposes and for your use or misuse of such information in connection with your determinations and accept the risk of doing so. The Owners make no representation or warranty regarding the legal compliance of the Services, and you are solely responsible for compliance with all laws and standards of professional practice applicable to you.

By using the Services, you represent and warrant that you have the right, authority, and capacity to agree to and abide by these Terms and that you are not prohibited from using the Services or any portion thereof.

The Owners may, but are not obligated to do any or all of the following without notice:
a. Pre-screen or record User Content (defined below) submissions;
b. Investigate your use of the Services as they deem appropriate to comply with any applicable law, regulation, government request or legal process;
c. Remove User Content which the Owners believe does not comply with these Terms; and
d. Terminate access to this Site upon determination that you have violated these Terms.

All rights not expressly granted within these Terms are reserved.

2. Restrictions: You agree that you will not do any of the following without prior written permission of the Owners:
a. distribute, sell, lease, transfer, assign, trade, rent, publish, republish, or license the Services to others;
b. edit, modify, translate, adapt, or create derivative works of the Services; or
c. copy or use the Services for any purpose, other than for the Permitted Purposes.

3. User Content: As part of the Services, users may submit content which may include, without limitation, demographics including age, sex, medical information, and other data ("User Content"). You agree that you are solely responsible for all User Content that you submit through the Services. You represent and warrant that you either are the sole and exclusive owner of all User Content or you have all rights, licenses, consents, and releases that are necessary to grant the Owners the rights in such User Content as is necessary to provide the Services or as otherwise specified in these Terms. You are solely responsible for ensuring that the User Content you make available through the Services complies with applicable laws including, without limitation, those relating to privacy and best clinical and ethical practices. Prior to submitting any User Content to the Services, you must remove any information that identifies an individual or could reasonably enable the identification of an individual. You are solely responsible for any claims arising from your failure to de-identify User Content that you submit through the Services.
You agree that you will not use the Services to make available User Content that:
a. You do not have the right to make available under any contractual or fiduciary agreement or law;
b. Infringes, misappropriates, or violates a third party's patent, copyright, trademark, trade secret, moral rights or other intellectual property rights, or rights of publicity or privacy;
c. Results in the violation of any applicable law or regulation, including but not limited to FOIP or HIA (defined below) or any other applicable privacy laws;
d. Is fraudulent, false, misleading, or deceptive; or
e. Contains viruses or other harmful computer code designed to interrupt, destroy or limit the use of any computer software or hardware.

4. Commercial Use: A license fee will apply to the use of the Services for any commercial purposes, including, but not limited to, use of the Services:
a. in clinical trial by a company;
b. in industry sponsored research studies; or
c. in for-profit organizations.
If you wish to use the Services for any purpose other than the Permitted Purposes, including any commercial use, then prior to using the Services for such purpose, you must contact the Owners (at ipm@innovatecalgary.com), and Dr. Pietro Ravani (at pravani@ucalgary.ca), to determine the applicable license fee, and any additional terms of use.

5. Intellectual Property Rights: The Services are protected under copyright, trademark and trade secret rights (the "Intellectual Property Rights"). You agree that the Services and any related Intellectual Property Rights in the information, including all text, code, multimedia clips, images, graphics, icons, branding, and other content on this Site are owned by the Owners and you will not infringe such Intellectual Property Rights or contest or challenge the ownership thereof.

6. Publications and Acknowledgement: Any publications that result from your use of any of the Services must clearly state that the publication includes information that was collected using KDpredictTM , the Services created by Dr. Pietro Ravani, et al., as described in Liu et al 2024, Predicting the risks of kidney failure and death in adults with moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease: multi-national population-based study (KDpredict).

7. Notation of Ownership: You may not remove any copyright notation on the Services. Any permitted republication of the Services must carry the copyright notification (Copyright @ UTI Limited Partnership, 2024. All rights reserved; written permission for commercial use is required; www.kdpredict.com).

8. Use of Names: Except as specifically permitted in these Terms, you shall not use any names or trademarks of the Owners or the University of Calgary in any news release, advertising, publicity, endorsement, promotion, or commercial communication unless the Owners have provided prior written consent for the particular use contemplated. The terms of this section survive the termination, expiration, non-renewal, or rescission of these Terms.

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The Owners do not assume any responsibility for screening any user of this Site or the Services nor do they verify or take responsibility for User Content. The Owners do not provide medical advice and do not recommend or endorse any specific products, product users, therapies, tests, physicians, health care professions or opinions. The Owners make no warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, or reliability of any content contained in the Services. No information provided through the Services or by the Owners in oral or written form will create any warranty not expressly made herein. Your reliance upon the content obtained or used by you through the Services is solely at your own risk. The Services are not intended to replace consultations with professional advisors or to provide legal, medical, or professional advice or diagnosis whatsoever and are not to be relied upon for those purposes.

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21. No Waiver: The Owners' failure to enforce any right or provision of these Terms will not constitute a waiver of future enforcement of that right or provision. Except as expressly set forth in these Terms, the exercise by either party of any of its remedies under these Terms will be without prejudice to its other remedies under these Terms, or otherwise.

22. Miscellaneous Terms: Collaborations on the Services' research and validation are welcome -- please contact us for details. The Owners can be contacted at ipm@innovatecalgary.com, and Dr. Pietro Ravani can be contacted at pravani@ucalgary.ca.